multi-agency forecast: internal and external needs to continue to improve the stable economic end of 2019

the national bureau of statistics will release macroeconomic data for december 2019 on january 17. industrial production is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in december 2019. social and zero consumption is supported in many ways. consumption except automobiles has shown strong resilience.

"industrial production may be stable in december 2019." huang wentao, chief analyst for macro fixed income at citic construction securities, pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption for power generation in december 2019 fell, partly due to the base increase in the same period last year. considering that the growth rate of industrial added value in the first three quarters of 2019 showed a "quarter-end upturn" phenomenon, and the growth rate of power generation and coal consumption in december 2019 was better than that in march, june and september, the manufacturing production pmi in december hit a new high of the year, indicating that industrial production in december was not weak.

qin tai, a senior analyst at shenwan hongyuan macro, said industrial production rebounded significantly in november 2019, indicating that the destocking process began to ease. the destocking process is expected to continue to ease. industrial production is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. it is estimated that the industrial added value in december will actually remain at around 6.0% year on year.

wang han, chief macro analyst at industrial securities, believes that the window period for internal and external improvement is coming. new export orders in the pmi data for december 2019 have picked up significantly, and the improvement in the external demand environment will also help the recovery of related production.

on the consumption side, li chao, chief macro researcher at huatai securities, estimated the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in december 2019 to be 8.3 percent year-on-year. there is still room for the effect of the shopping festival to play out. meanwhile, the spring festival of 2020 will be earlier. considering the impact of the demand for spring festival goods and the low base in 2018, it is expected that zero consumption will remain supportive in december. with the exception of cars, consumption has proved resilient.

"property completion has recently started to recover, the recovery in auto sales has continued, and the e-commerce promotion in december 2019 is still partially extended. it is expected that the nominal and real retail sales of social consumer goods in december will recover to 8.3% and 5.2% respectively year on year." qin tai said.

in terms of investment, huang wentao believes that considering that the first quarter of 2020 is the peak period for special debt financing and infrastructure development, the previous december 2019 should be the stage of preparation and capacity accumulation, and the performance of infrastructure investment in the same period may be relatively flat. in november 2019, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises picked up, the cumulative profit growth rate showed that the profit cycle of industrial enterprises was bottoming out, and the ppi rebound expectation reinforced the expectation of bottoming out and recovery of the profit cycle, and the manufacturing investment was expected to stabilize.

qin tai also said that the early special debt accelerated issuance, since the third quarter of the stack of medium - and long-term loans to cooperate with the recovery, infrastructure financing environment as a whole marginal good. however, operations such as centralized issuance of special bonds, proper use of funds and effective investment may be more focused on 2020. in december 2019, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to pick up slightly, and the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment may rise slightly to 3.6%. in terms of manufacturing investment, in the context of improved consumer demand for household goods and improved marginal external environment to promote export recovery, there is still support for downstream manufacturing investment. it is estimated that the cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment will slightly recover to 2.6% in december 2019.

source: economic information daily